Nuclear War

[Cool Breeze]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: Nuclear war

> John believes that a limited and regional nuclear war will happen,
> if it does, in the ME or Far East, right John?

> I agree.

There are people in this forum who have said this, but I've been
saying for years that by the climax of WW III, every nuclear weapon
in the world will have been used somewhere, mostly in the last
few months.

The climax of a generational crisis war is always maximally
genocidal and explosive. I once compared it to a large ball
rolling downhill, gathering speed, until it reaches the bottom
and explodes, destroying everything around it.

Just to give one illustrative example: Suppose China is losing the
war. Rather than surrender, they'll use every nuclear war in their
inventory. The US and other nuclear powers will respond in kind.

So you have a double principle of maximum ruin, then. Interesting. I don't think that will happen, but it's a pure guess. They might not be able to use, nor may other countries, "all" of their nuclear weapons, for many reasons. I think your reasoning on their desire to do so is good, but I don't think they'll be capable of it, since mostly their ability to launch will have been knocked out - this is far more likely than a maximum ruin scenario, FAR more likely.

[Cool Breeze]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: Regeneracy

> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBR3yCsDHf4

> John, it looks like regeneration is happening.

> General Kellogg is an excellent commentator.

Yes, it is. And yes, he is.

He overstates everything about Russia and the recent history even. The West and NATO coup'd the democratically elected president Yanukovych just 8 years ago, the Ambassador and Nuland his assistant are on tape, etc. I wonder if Kellogg will ever tell you that. Oh yeah, that was "justified" I'm sure, right? Give me a break. Now you wonder why people take matters into their own hands? I don't.

This is simpleton analysis. Everyone knows the US lords it over people so they can't conduct free transactions, especially for energy. I'm not blaming anyone, just telling it how it is. Only China is significantly evil, and they have bought most of the US politicians. The rest of all the countries, look around, are authoritarians as well. Acting like one country is that much worse (besides China) than all others is just poppycock.

[Cool Breeze]

This war would be different in that it's a crisis war for both the
Europeans and the Russians. How this will all be sorted out remains
to be seen.

So are you on record that this will be an all out "European War"?

[Navigator]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: Nuclear war

There are people in this forum who have said this, but I've been
saying for years that by the climax of WW III, every nuclear weapon
in the world will have been used somewhere, mostly in the last
few months.

The climax of a generational crisis war is always maximally
genocidal and explosive. I once compared it to a large ball
rolling downhill, gathering speed, until it reaches the bottom
and explodes, destroying everything around it.

Just to give one illustrative example: Suppose China is losing the
war. Rather than surrender, they'll use every nuclear war in their
inventory. The US and other nuclear powers will respond in kind.

Logically, I believe your argument is sound.

However, mainly for reasons centered around my personal religious beliefs, I do not believe it will happen this way.

When (not if) China and Russia begin to lose, their supreme leaders will probably order the wide use of nuclear weapons. But I don't believe the orders will be carried out. Those responsible for actually firing or having the "keys" will, I believe, refuse to use them. While their leaders may at that point be suicidal, they will want to live past the war, along with their loved ones. They will know that the war is lost, and that nuclear exchange would just be a much worse disaster for their country.

An example of this was at the end of WW1. Realizing that all was lost, the Kaiser ordered a last ditch sortie by the German Navy. He figured that he had paid for the navy, and while it had only a remote chance of beating the enemy, it did have some chance, and he might as well use it. The Kaiser had nothing to lose at that point. The German Navy itself refused to commit suicide for the Kaiser, and the sailors went into revolt. It was the end of the Kaiser's rule.

The religious point is, I believe, that God will not destroy most of humanity without their being serious prophetic warnings first. War is one of the methods God uses to warn people regarding sin/immorality. It will be a very serious war, but I think the Nukes don't get used until the postwar appearance of the anti-Christ. Then its widespread nuclear devastation.

[John]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: WW I and Vietnam War

> An example of this was at the end of WW1. Realizing that all was
> lost, the Kaiser ordered a last ditch sortie by the German
> Navy. He figured that he had paid for the navy, and while it had
> only a remote chance of beating the enemy, it did have some
> chance, and he might as well use it. The Kaiser had nothing to
> lose at that point. The German Navy itself refused to commit
> suicide for the Kaiser, and the sailors went into revolt. It was
> the end of the Kaiser's rule.

WW I was a generational crisis war for Russia and the Ottomans, but it
was a non-crisis war for Germany. In fact, Germany's behavior in WW I
was similar in many ways to America's behavior in the Vietnam war. A
world war now involving China, Japan, India and the US would be a
crisis war for all parties, and there would be no mercy, especially at
the climax.

[John]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: European War

> So are you on record that this will be an all out "European
> War"?

I would think so. The crazed Putin is also thirsting after Poland,
Lithuania and Romania. That would bring in Nato, and that would be a
war.

Further south, the Balkans and Greece almost went to war a couple of
years ago over the name "Macedonia." It wouldn't take much to ignite
a war there.

I'm sure you could list other fault lines.

[Navigator]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: WW I and Vietnam War

> An example of this was at the end of WW1. Realizing that all was
> lost, the Kaiser ordered a last ditch sortie by the German
> Navy. He figured that he had paid for the navy, and while it had
> only a remote chance of beating the enemy, it did have some
> chance, and he might as well use it. The Kaiser had nothing to
> lose at that point. The German Navy itself refused to commit
> suicide for the Kaiser, and the sailors went into revolt. It was
> the end of the Kaiser's rule.

WW I was a generational crisis war for Russia and the Ottomans, but it
was a non-crisis war for Germany. In fact, Germany's behavior in WW I
was similar in many ways to America's behavior in the Vietnam war. A
world war now involving China, Japan, India and the US would be a
crisis war for all parties, and there would be no mercy, especially at
the climax.

I am actually published in multiple areas regarding WW1, having researched it extensively. I have written a book and have published detailed military simulations and a host of articles on the subject.

WW1 was an "all in" war for Germany. The Kaiser had the complete support of the population up until about Jun of 1918, when people realized that they no longer had any hope of winning the war.

The country went through complete mobilization, complete conversion to a war economy, and even years of starvation in their total support of the Kaiser's misguided war efforts.

Only at the very end did the navy mutiny (when ordered to commit suicide), while the army conducted a fighting retreat until the armistice could be negotiated.

[Navigator]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: European War

> So are you on record that this will be an all out "European
> War"?

I would think so. The crazed Putin is also thirsting after Poland,
Lithuania and Romania. That would bring in Nato, and that would be a
war.

Further south, the Balkans and Greece almost went to war a couple of
years ago over the name "Macedonia." It wouldn't take much to ignite
a war there.

I'm sure you could list other fault lines.

I am in complete agreement here. All kinds of seething resentments and hatreds will boil over in an increasingly chaotic situation.

[Trevor]

Difference is, in the First World War, Germany realized they couldn't win and decided to sue for peace rather than fight to the end. If China or Russia (or the U.S., for that matter) is in a situation where their choices are to surrender or use nuclear weapons, they'll opt for the latter.

The Allies could have forced unconditional surrender out of Germany. They had the strength to win, but it would have taken another year and probably another several hundred thousand dead. It was a price they didn't want to pay, which convinced Germany they hadn't really been beaten.

Even this isn't likely to bring an immediate end to the year. I've seen many estimates during the Cold War where 2/3rds to even 4/5ths of total warheads would be destroyed on the ground, in port, or just missiles that fail on route. It also takes multiple warheads to destroy an air base, naval port, and in decades past, missile silos.

So if Russia does ultimately end up as an ally against China, does that make our current NATO allies an enemy?

[Cool Breeze]

** 24-Feb-2022 World View: European War

> So are you on record that this will be an all out "European
> War"?

I would think so. The crazed Putin is also thirsting after Poland,
Lithuania and Romania. That would bring in Nato, and that would be a
war.

Further south, the Balkans and Greece almost went to war a couple of
years ago over the name "Macedonia." It wouldn't take much to ignite
a war there.

I'm sure you could list other fault lines.

I am in complete agreement here. All kinds of seething resentments and hatreds will boil over in an increasingly chaotic situation.

Ok, you both are on record. I guess we'll see what happens.