Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

** 25-Feb-2022 World View: Putin overextended?

I just saw General Keith Kellogg on Fox Business Network. He says
that if Russian forces try to take Kiev by force, then they will be
severely overextended, and the war will be deemed a failure by the
Russian public. The Russian troops are already facing a great deal of
resistance. He said that Putin will have to double his bodyguards in
that case.

During the last 24 hours, there have been numerous news reports of
antiwar protests across multiple cities in Russia. Most of the people
of Russia apparently don't believe Putin's justifications for the war,
and believe that Russia is invading Ukraine with no justification.

Frankly, it would be great if the Russian public gets rid of Putin and the whole FSB/KGB regime. It would be great if the Ukrainians are able to adequately defend their country and the war ends with them still independent.

I would be happy to say I was wrong, and live out my life in a peaceful and well-off retirement.

[FullMoon]

** 25-Feb-2022 World View: Putin overextended?

I just saw General Keith Kellogg on Fox Business Network. He says
that if Russian forces try to take Kiev by force, then they will be
severely overextended, and the war will be deemed a failure by the
Russian public. The Russian troops are already facing a great deal of
resistance. He said that Putin will have to double his bodyguards in
that case.

During the last 24 hours, there have been numerous news reports of
antiwar protests across multiple cities in Russia. Most of the people
of Russia apparently don't believe Putin's justifications for the war,
and believe that Russia is invading Ukraine with no justification.

Frankly, it would be great if the Russian public gets rid of Putin and the whole FSB/KGB regime. It would be great if the Ukrainians are able to adequately defend their country and the war ends with them still independent.

I would be happy to say I was wrong, and live out my life in a peaceful and well-off retirement.

Would that we all could watch our children and grandchildren grow up in a peaceful, clean and prosperous world...
There's a few weeks left and the Pacific is quiet. Maybe we'll have a nice springtime?

[Xeraphim1]

At some point refusing to admit you were wrong is just stubbornness that accomplishes nothing.

Nobody forced Putin to invade Ukraine; he spent millions of $ and months putting troops into place exactly to accomplish what he's doing today.

That's highly debatable. Biden kept saying an invasion was imminent even when both Putin AND Zelensky were telling him otherwise, and Biden was taking actions to reflect this "belief." This likely gave Putin the impression that Biden could not be appeased, and he took action accordingly by turning what was originally a military exercise into actual preparations for an invasion. In other words Biden proclaimed a self-fulfilling prophecy, which ultimately came true.

BS. Putin lies about everything and cannot be trusted. Period. Zelensky was most likely trying to damp things down a bit. It was not a matter of Biden being "appeased" since Biden wasn't asking for anything other than Russia not invading another country. Military exercises take a couple of weeks at maximum. Putin has Russian soldiers in the field for months which costs a lot of money, makes the troops unhappy and disrupts normal schedules. There is NO way that Putin was not planning to invade another country.

Honestly, if you believe otherwise you're either a Russian apologist or you're stupid. There is no other option.

But according to Putin himself even that wasn't enough to prompt him to invade; he was only merely preparing for the worst at that point. The final straw came when Zelensky responded to Russia's recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk by weighing the possibility of Ukraine obtaining nuclear weapons. While such a response is understandable at face value, one has to consider the fact that Ukraine has had a serious neo-Nazi problem in its military for years.

There was no chance in the foreseeable future that Ukraine could acquire nuclear weapons. Ukraine doesn't even have a nuclear industry. Projected new reactors were to be built by Westinghouse. Nuclear fuel was provided by either Westinghouse or Russia's TVEL. This "reason" is complete BS and you should be embarrassed to even bring it up.

NOTE: I am NOT endorsing the idea that the Ukrainian government itself is neo-Nazi, which is a narrative often promoted by actual Russian trolls. Rather, I'm pointing out the fact that the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion has made up an entire Ukrainian National Guard division for the past seven years, and it's likely that the Azov Battalion is trying to radicalize other portions of the Ukrainian military.

Yes, the Azov Battalion is unseemly. And you know what? Russia has the exact same kind of organizations. In fact, if you want to compare fascist, xenophobic organizations in Ukraine and Russia, you'll find that the latter does a much better job with an estimated 50-70 thousand.

I've seen this argument raised repeatedly in the past few days; always by Russian trolls. You might want to look at the company you're keeping.

Thus, if Ukraine's current government were to obtain nuclear weapons, then Ukraine would become just like Pakistan, where there is constant risk of rogue elements of the military using nuclear weapons without the permission of the central government. The only difference this time is that the rogue elements would be neo-Nazis instead of Salafi/Wahhabi Islamists.

The have been no reports at all of Ukrainian military units operating in a rogue fashion. Ukraine's military is more firmly under civilian control that Russia where it reports only to a dictator. You're setting up a fictitious scenario to try to justify evil.

Now that I think about it, we should be paying closer attention to the India-Pakistan conflict going forward, because Russia just set a precedent for India to take action against Pakistan on similar grounds. It's also possible that Israel may use this precedent against Iran in the future.

Pakistan is a satrapy of China which would act to protect its possession.

You might want to do some soul searching because you're gone from pushing conspiracy theories to justifying evil.

[Xeraphim1]

No, it isn't responding. There were no threats or provocations from NATO against Russia. The only thing that NATO has done is some mild pushing back against Russian aggression. Your argument is the same as blaming the British for the Germans invading Czechoslovakia.

'
There's a reason I said "responding" and not "defending itself." I've never bought the idea that Russia was entirely innocent in this conflict, and it's easy to argue that Russia acted inappropriately by invading upon the mere threat of Ukraine obtaining nuclear weapons, instead of waiting until Ukraine actually acted upon that threat.

"Acted inappropriately"? Really? So if I came up and punched you in the face, would that be a minor faux pas? There has never been a single credible report of Ukraine working to establish a nuclear industry which might be able to produce a weapon in 10-20 years. This "reason" didn't exist until Putin wanted some other reason so justify his invasion.

Surprisingly, there was actually been popular support in China for Ukraine while the Chinese government has mostly been silent on the issue. It notably has not supported Russia.

I knew China's government was laying low, but I wasn't aware of the popular support for Ukraine. That's... interesting.

Turkey doesn't hate the US but it does hate Russia. And Turkey knows that it fought Russia for a long time and lost the majority of those wars. Few of Turkey's neighbors are anti-US and fewer are pro-Russia. Mostly there is ambivalence and a desire to stay out of the way. Greece, Bulgaria and Romania are NOT pro-Russia. They may be somewhat less anti-Russia than others, but they do not support Putin. The latter two in particular remember what it was like to be under the Russian boot and have no desire to return. Turkey is not going to side with Russia.

I don't know where you keep getting this stuff. It's not just wrong, it doesn't make sense.

Anti-Americanism in Turkey has surged in the post-9/11 era in general and over the past 5 years in particular. Many recent polls show that the US is even more unpopular among the Turkish people than Russia is. Erdogan has also brought his country closer to both Russia and Iran over the past several years due to growing tensions with the US over the Syrian conflict as well as the proxy conflict between Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Show me the polls. Erdogan has not appreciably brought his country closer to either Russian or Iran and has actually works against each of them. In Syria, even though Russia and Turkey work together, they have vastly different aims. In Libya they are on completely different sides. No to mention the facts that Arabs don't like Turks in General and particularly dislike the state of Turkey and even more so dislike Erdogan who is a Muslim Brotherhood supported.

[Xeraphim1]

I swear, you get dumber by the post. Putin has used force in Chechnya, Georgia, the streets of London (to poison his enemies), and Ukraine.

You will make great cannon fodder. For the Russians.

I never said Putin hasn't resorted to using force. I only said he hasn't used force as the only option. He's also attempted to expand Russia's influence through soft power. Hitler did no such thing.

WTF? Have you read no history?

[Xeraphim1]

France says Putin needs to understand Nato has nuclear weapons

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, when making threats about using nuclear weapons, needs to understand that Nato, too, is a nuclear alliance.

Asked whether Putin's threat of "such consequences that you have never encountered in your history" was tantamount to threatening to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict, Le Drian said it was understood as such.

"Yes, I think that Vladimir Putin must also understand that the Atlantic alliance is a nuclear alliance. That is all I will say about this," Le Drian said on French television TF1.

Taken from a live feed from the Daily Telegraph in London.

The problem is that many (most) countries don't trust France to use nuclear weapons other than to protect France. This is why Countries actually bordering Russia spend a lot of effort getting on the US's good side because it is considered more reliable. Same thing for the UK.

[Xeraphim1]

— From an Observer, Russian-Israeli diplomat Yaakov Kedmi says the current operation in Ukraine may be only the first stage of Russia's "military-technical" response to the West.

He says the next steps could be deployments to Serbia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba.

Russia honestly doesn't have a lot to send and it isn't rich. And likely to become less rich due to its actions.

Serbia is happy to take free Russian weapons, but is it willing to actually ally with Russia? I doubt it. Its EU accession talks are expected to be complete in 2024 allowing it to join in 2025. Accepting Russian soldiers would get those talks cancelled.

Ortega is happy to mouth platitudes for Putin, but is it willing to accept the Russian military? The US has a lot of ways to hurt Nicaragua while Russia has few ways to help it.

Venezuela is a failed state. Neither Russia nor China are willing to throw much effort into it because there is little chance of getting anything back. Maduro has been forced to used the country's gold reserves and whatever it can mine to pay for whatever it's getting since no one will extend credit.

As for Cuba, it accepted Russian soldiers before and it didn't work out well. I don't think it's willing to go for round 2.

[Xeraphim1]

The madness continues, I see...

Is cutting back oil production or cutting off oil in the middle of the winter considered soft power in Russia?

Actually, no. It is hard power.

The very concept of soft power is that it is used to persuade rather than coerce. Putin has been using both persuasion and coercion in his wielding of power, while Hitler only used coercion. An example of Putin using soft power is setting up Russo-centric free trade agreements such as the Eurasian Economic Union.

Yes, and he played the "democracy" game until the US and NATO coup'd the elected Ukrainian leader. I find it funny that most people conveniently forget this. I think most actually don't know. To act like NATO are good guys is silly. They are just as power mongering, if not, worse. Ukraine has been a shadow government to pay US politicians' families. How many people know that Biden, Pelosi, Kerry and Romney have kids on Ukrainian "energy" business boards? LOL, it's an obvious scam and Putin knows it, and is putting an end to it. As he should.

The idea that Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia is laughable. let's not forget that As soon as he was kicked out of office, Gerhard Schroeder, former German chancellor, went to Russia for a job at Gazprom and is currently on the Nordstream 2 board.

As to US politician families, yes, there were members working in Ukraine during the Obama administration. In the years since then Ukraine has become less corrupt and more transparent.

Suggesting that NATO is the bad guy in a comparison to Russia is not just false but blatant stupidity. Either that or the work of paid Russian trollery.

[Tom Mazanec]

Military exercises take a couple of weeks at maximum. Putin has Russian soldiers in the field for months which costs a lot of money, makes the troops unhappy and disrupts normal schedules. There is NO way that Putin was not planning to invade another country.

Why did it take him so long? Why didn't he invade as soon as the troops could get there?

[DaKardii]

Military exercises take a couple of weeks at maximum. Putin has Russian soldiers in the field for months which costs a lot of money, makes the troops unhappy and disrupts normal schedules.

Fair point, although it doesn't necessarily prove that an invasion was imminent at the time Zelensky was telling Biden to keep his mouth shut. And even if an invasion was imminent the entire time, that still doesn't excuse Biden for speaking out of line. If we're supposed to be helping an ally and that ally is telling us that what we're doing is not helping, what are we supposed to make of that?

Yes, the Azov Battalion is unseemly. And you know what? Russia has the exact same kind of organizations. In fact, if you want to compare fascist, xenophobic organizations in Ukraine and Russia, you'll find that the latter does a much better job with an estimated 50-70 thousand.

I've seen this argument raised repeatedly in the past few days; always by Russian trolls. You might want to look at the company you're keeping.

No, Russian trolls say that Ukraine's government itself is neo-Nazi, which is totally false. I'm saying that there is a subversive faction of the Ukrainian military which could potentially go rogue. Ukraine is obviously not the only country with such problems, but it's one of the worst-off in that regard.

As for Russian ties to far right political movements, I definitely can't deny that one. But as far as I know Russia doesn't have ties with literal neo-Nazi militias in the vein of the Azov Battalion.

Pakistan is a satrapy of China which would act to protect its possession.

Actually, Pakistan has a dual loyalty to both China and Saudi Arabia. The latter country is the central reason why Pakistan is so firmly tied to terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban.

"Acted inappropriately"? Really? So if I came up and punched you in the face, would that be a minor faux pas? There has never been a single credible report of Ukraine working to establish a nuclear industry which might be able to produce a weapon in 10-20 years. This "reason" didn't exist until Putin wanted some other reason so justify his invasion.

I'm pretty sure Ukraine has the resources to produce nuclear weapons more quickly than 10-20 years. Although I will admit that if Putin genuinely believes Ukraine to be a potential nuclear threat he responded to that threat pretty hastily. Which goes back to what I said about India and Israel. This could be used as a justification for them to launch sudden attacks on Pakistan and Iran, respectively.

Show me the polls.

According to Pew, among the Turkish people the US has consistently had a higher disapproval rating than Russia since at least 2007. The only exception was in 2014 and 2015, immediately following the annexation of Crimea. But even then, Russia's disapproval rating was only slightly higher than that of the US. And as for the most recent poll (taken in 2019), it's not a close call. The US' disapproval rating is a whopping 26 points higher than that of Russia. Also, that same poll is the first time that Russia's disapproval rating has fallen below 50%.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/data ... country/TR
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/data ... country/TR

Erdogan has not appreciably brought his country closer to either Russian or Iran and has actually works against each of them. In Syria, even though Russia and Turkey work together, they have vastly different aims. In Libya they are on completely different sides. No to mention the facts that Arabs don't like Turks in General and particularly dislike the state of Turkey and even more so dislike Erdogan who is a Muslim Brotherhood supported.

Turkey's enmity with the Sunni Arab states is a major reason behind Erdogan's recent attempts at rapprochement with Russia and Iran, who both appear to hate the Sunni Arab states even more than they hate Turkey. Sure it's not a natural alliance, but I can see them working together against the Sunni Arab states the way Hitler and Stalin did against Poland.

Another possible factor is Turkey, Russia, and Iran all having a shared interest in protecting the Turkic peoples in Central Asia from China, Pakistan, the Taliban, and their allies in the region. John has brought up the possibility of a Russo-Turco-Iranian alliance over this issue on at least one occasion.

WTF? Have you read no history?

Give me one example where Hitler tried to incorporate other countries into his empire using soft power. One.