Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

Two Russian billionaires close to Putin are now calling for a peaceful settlement to the conflict

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/two-of-rus ... -1.5798082

[MrGuest]

I think it's more likely that Russia will follow the same path
as in Chechnya and Syria -- massive bombing, combined with
chemical weapons -- Sarin gas and chlorine gas.

I can understand him getting away with that against Muslims, but would he really do that to people who are considered fellow Russians? Isn't his argument that most of the civilians he would be gassing want to be part of Russia? And aren't there legitimately still pro-Russian loyalists there?

Destroying infrastructure to "liberate" Russians - even if there's collateral damage - still makes some cold logical sense. But gassing civilians seems like a move of vengeance against a hated enemy or some "otherized" group. Seems it would make Ukraine impossible to govern, turn ordinary Russians against him, not to mention retaliation from the rest of the world.

The most logical assessment I can think of for Putin is that he's arrogant, insulated and actually believed Ukraine could be easily convinced to just submit to the Motherland. If he's gone completely mad, sees his back to the wall and doesn't want to face the humiliation of defeat then he might as well just lash out with nukes - but would the people around him go for that? Surely some of military brass are smart enough to see the writing of the wall and don't want be complicit in war crimes with the whole world watching. The interactions I've been hearing about between Russian soldiers and Ukrainians doesn't suggest that Russians would be part of atrocities.

[Navigator]

First off, war is the great “Pandora’s Box” of history. Once you open that box, by crossing borders with military forces, you have very little idea of how it is going to actually work out. I don’t think that any of Japan’s war planners, for example, thought that invading non-Manchuria China, or later sinking the US fleet in Pearl Harbor was going to result in the firebombings/nuclear destruction of every city in their nation.

In my studies and research on military history, things seemed to move, at the operational level, in four-day cycles. As John points out, we are just in the first few days of this. And the first point I would make, is that Pandora’s box has just been slightly cracked open.

Putin’s “Plan A”, if you will, was that Russia could just attack Ukrainian military assets, seize senior political leaders in the Ukraine (hence the ill-fated heliborne attack on the airfield to the NW of Kiev), put pressure on the Ukrainian Army, and Ukraine would fold. He could then install a puppet government, and then smooth things over with the west, kind of like he did after taking Crimea.

Putin’s message to his domestic audience has been that Ukraine is run by “pseudo-nazis” that are not supported by the bulk of Ukrainians, many of whom are ethnically Russian. And that these “pseudo-nazis” are pushing to get Ukraine into NATO, and that is part of NATO’s plot to undermine and ultimately destroy Russia.

So far, the Russian military is being extremely “nice” to Ukrainian civilians. They are not bombing/barraging urban areas, they are not shooting people that come up to them in the streets, they are even letting civilian cars drive past their convoys!

It is now blatantly obvious that people in Ukraine, including the vast majority of ethnic Russians, prefer to be Ukrainian. After all, even with all the problems Ukraine has, it is still a lot better off, and a lot “free-er” than Putin’s Russia.

So, Putin’s “Plan A” is now failing, and at the end of the first four-day cycle, things will start to change.

Putin has been holding back, and trying to minimize the intensity of the conflict, in the hopes that he can pacify the Ukrainian population and pacify the west once the puppet regime is put in place.

The odds of this happening are becoming more and more remote for Putin.

Now about Putin himself. He is a psychopath, meaning that he has absolutely no empathy for anyone except himself. He would, without any kind of remorse, see millions or even billions die if it meant what he perceives as a good outcome for himself. This war is about him creating some kind of “historical legacy” for himself, where he is lauded like Peter the Great or even Stalin, for generations to come, as the “Restorer of Russian pride and power”.

But Putin has now indeed opened “Pandora’s Box”, and “Plan A” is not working. Ukraine is not folding, and the Ukrainians don’t seem to want the Russians around (to say the least).

As Ukraine continues to defend itself, and as Putin comes to the realization that the west is never going to allow him to “smooth this over”, he will use increasingly drastic measures. If needs be, he will return Russia to Stalinist levels of control. He will end dissent by the most brutal of means. In addition, he will start to use the narrative that NATO is who is defending Ukraine, and that it is NATO supplying the ammunition, and NATO that is secretly supplying troops (how Baltic and Polish volunteers will be portrayed) and that he was right about Ukraine/NATO all along, and that Russia’s existential existence is at stake.

Some may think that demonstrations and wavering public support in Russia will cause Putin’s downfall. I don’t think so. Russia is not the West. Putin and his FSB/KGB cronies have been in power for decades, and they are not going to just walk away because people don’t like them. A good example of what they can and will do are the Iranian demonstrations years ago. The security people actually started shooting people. Russia has a history of going even further, and dissent won’t last long, especially once the Putin crowd have figured out that the west will never forgive them.

Militarily, the war will go from being “surgical” to being all out. Look up a picture of Kharkov or Kiev from WW2, and you will see what “all out” means.

While Chechnya held out against the Russian Army, there are two reasons for this. First is that the Chechen war was started, and prolongation needed, by the FSB/KGB in order to oust Yeltsin and install Putin. Second is that Russia did not want to overly antagonize the west (which is what would happen if they did what I am about to describe).

Here is how defiant urban areas could ultimately be handled: Surround the city and cut off food, power, and do what you can to cut off water and sanitation. If you have to, use gas, the civilians have no protection, and I would gather the Ukrainian military his little. The city will starve/surrender. The inhabitants are not allowed to return to their homes (where they may have stockpiled weapons). They are sent elsewhere.

As I pointed out in another thread, Russia could actually get away with using nukes in Ukraine, but Putin would really have to have lost all hope of a possible future reconciliation with the west to do this, and the military situation would need to be pretty dire. It is nowhere near that point now.

As for this ending because Russia is going to “run out of money” or the Russian economy “can’t support this”, I would say “what money did Stalin have?”. Russia, without Ukraine, the Baltics or Belarus was able to fight the German armies to a standstill and then push them back to Berlin.

Russia was able to do this by completely militarizing its population and economy.

I believe that ultimately, after about 3-4 years of draconian measures and military reverses, the Russian military will end things and remove Putin and his cronies, but not before we go through a very difficult time. A time that will include widespread war in Europe as the shell that is NATO is ultimately exposed.

Since this is the "Nuclear War" thread, I thought I should point out that the one place Putin could use nukes without triggering thermonuclear exchange, is Ukraine.

This would not fit his current narrative, that most Ukrainians really want to be Russians, but his narrative will change if his "plan A" doesn't work, and it doesn't appear to be working.

An alternative narrative would be that Ukraine "secretly" belongs to NATO, that the "pre-emptive" strike against Ukraine was needed, as NATO is supplying the Ukrainians with weapons and even troops, and so on, and that Russia's very existence is now at stake.

We are seeing that Putin’s “Plan A” is failing. The Russian military somehow convinced Putin, and itself, that they could just fly in/drive in, grab some of the politicians, install their puppet, and the whole thing would be over quick. This was “Plan A”.

In the past I have pointed out the problems with US Military leadership. Russian leadership is worse. The Russians have all the problems that we have with “gung-ho” types who do not understand (or want to understand) the realities of operations. These Russian types run their airborne forces, and, like ours, think that their “toughness” and “bravado” will overcome any and all obstacles and they will win.

The reality, as they found out in days 1 & 2 is that an airborne/heliborne operation against a foe with heavy weapons is not going to work. This stuff only works nowadays against a VERY lightly armed foe with questionable will to resist. Flying in paratroops on transports while there are enemy forces around with anti-aircraft missiles (SAMs, like the Stinger) is frankly nuts. So, the Russian airborne has literally had its butt handed to it.

The Russian generals also evidently thought they literally just drive into Ukrainian urban areas and seize them. They were not treating this as an operation against a foe with any competence. To me this was obvious as they have allowed Ukrainian civilian traffic to continue.

The Russians really thought, that they could quickly knock out Ukraine, and then smooth things over with the west. They may still be hoping they can pull it off. The Russian Army, though stymied in taking major urban areas like Kiev and Kharkov by “coup de main”, is till making reasonable progress in the countryside, to the south from Crimea (where they have established a viable bridgehead over the Dnieper to the east of Cherson) and to the NE of Kiev. I believe that they have even established a land link from Crimea to the Donbas region at this point as well.

The plan may now change to a “Plan B” of just isolating the cities, and putting them under siege, and hoping that the Ukrainians will give up as they run out of food and ammunition. I think they will still hope that even with this, they could potentially eventually rectify things with the west and go back to “business as usual”.

If that doesn’t work, if they decide that reproachment with the west is no longer possible, they will then resort to increasingly extreme measures. On both their own population as well as on the Ukrainians.

I have pointed out that the Russians could use a nuke in the Ukraine without triggering thermonuclear exchange with NATO, though I think doing so would only happen under the direst of circumstances.

Putin will turn Ukraine into a picture of Chechnya and Syria if he needs to. See my earlier comments on his being a psychopath. Such steps would happen before the use of a nuke, but Putin may decide that he needs to horrify/scare the EU by such an act. But this would only happen if he thinks he can’t eventually go back to doing business with the rest of Europe.

[Navigator]

I would agree that the Russian establishment (Military and Political) taking out Putin and his cronies right now would be the best solution for this right now.

It would be great if a modern Russian revolution would take place as a result of this, and that Russia would finally turn into a stable democracy. I would gladly welcome this.

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening for quite some time.

There is an entire strata of Russian society, the military, the politicians, and especially the police and security services, that are completely dependent on Putin and his establishment. This system has been in place for roughly 20 years. Without this "establishment", these people would be out of a job, and their future would be, in their minds, too uncertain to contemplate. They will therefore kill and wage war to keep it in power. They will shoot and torture their neighbors before they give up power.

[Navigator]

For all of us currently warm and safe in the west, there is something we need to worry about in the very short term in addition to a looming two-front war.

The Russian cultural philosophy regarding wealth seems to be "If I can't have it, neither can you".

What this means is that if all of those crooks in Russia cannot have and enjoy their wealth, they don't want anyone in the west to be able to do so either.

Once they have gone too far, and the west decides to pull the plug on Russia economically, the Russians most likely are going to retaliate economically. They will do things that will cause the markets to crash, for Europe to not have energy, for there to be disruptions in supply chains, and so on. They are fully aware (as all of us should be) on how extremely precarious the financial situation is in the west.

Right now I think they are only holding off on doing this because they think that they are going to be able to go back to doing business with the west, and possibly the Chinese need them to hold off.

[Navigator]

Throughout history, Russia has started off its wars with a high degree of military incompetence.

Examples

Well before Napoleon invaded Russia, he practically annihilated the Russian army in Europe at Austerlitz (Russian Army there was commanded by Czar Alexander I himself). The Czar then stopped leading the Army, and Russia then got new commanders who were competent (Kutuzov), and who knew how to fight the French.

In the Russo Japanese war, incompetent Russian admirals led their navy around the globe to its complete doom at Tsushima. On land, the incompetent Kuropatkin led them to defeat at Mukden. Kuropatkin was relieved by the competent Linevich, who would have beaten the Japanese back once the Russian Army was properly reinforced (but the Czar panicked and entered into peace negotiations after Tsushima).

WW1 started off for the Russian with the Tannenberg fiasco (the Germans surrounded and destroyed an entire Russian Army). They found a highly competent general in Brusilov, and gave much of the command of military operations to him. Unfortunately for the Czar, he did not give total command to Brusilov, and that was the end of the Czar.

Prior to WW2, Stalin purged the USSR military leadership. As a result, he got the fiasco of the 1940 attack on Finland, and the initial response to the German invasion (which was likewise incompetent). Stalin gave up operational military command and allowed competent generals (Zhukov, Rokossovski, Vasilevsky) who turned things around.

My guess would be that they are currently figuring out who is competent and who is not. Some drastic changes will take place, and those who have produced disaster will be replaced.

[Xeraphim1]

Military exercises take a couple of weeks at maximum. Putin has Russian soldiers in the field for months which costs a lot of money, makes the troops unhappy and disrupts normal schedules. There is NO way that Putin was not planning to invade another country.

Why did it take him so long? Why didn't he invade as soon as the troops could get there?

Based on Russian performance so far, he most likely thought that he needed overwhelming strength to accomplish the goal Also increased training, something the Russian army is lacking in Keep in mind that despite the size of the Russian military, a large percentage is conscripts and in modern warfare they just aren't worth all that much And keep in mind that Russia has limitations in how quickly it can actually move troops and supply them. Already there have been reports of troops running out of supply

[Xeraphim1]

Yes, and he played the "democracy" game until the US and NATO coup'd the elected Ukrainian leader. I find it funny that most people conveniently forget this. I think most actually don't know. To act like NATO are good guys is silly. They are just as power mongering, if not, worse. Ukraine has been a shadow government to pay US politicians' families. How many people know that Biden, Pelosi, Kerry and Romney have kids on Ukrainian "energy" business boards? LOL, it's an obvious scam and Putin knows it, and is putting an end to it. As he should.

The idea that Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia is laughable. let's not forget that As soon as he was kicked out of office, Gerhard Schroeder, former German chancellor, went to Russia for a job at Gazprom and is currently on the Nordstream 2 board.

As to US politician families, yes, there were members working in Ukraine during the Obama administration. In the years since then Ukraine has become less corrupt and more transparent.

Suggesting that NATO is the bad guy in a comparison to Russia is not just false but blatant stupidity. Either that or the work of paid Russian trollery.

When did I say that Ukraine is "more corrupt than Russia"? Why do people quote others with things they haven't said before? You are laughable for posting stupid crap like that. Stop it. It's deceptive and bad faith.

It's a common argument of the people supporting Russia to point out corruption in Ukraine. If you don't want to be tarred with the same brush, stop using the same tactics

[Xeraphim1]

** 25-Feb-2022 World View: Putin illness?

I keep hearing speculation that Putin is ill.

I felt the same way on Tuesday, when I watched Putin give his speech
to the nation, and I described the speech as "extremely vicious and
vengeful."
viewtopic.php?p=68989#p68989

Various reporters and analysts have been using words like "unhinged,"
"crazy," "angry" and "isolated" to describe him.

The following remarks are typical of what I've been hearing:

> "Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Russian businessman
> and Putin opponent, has said he believes the Russian President is
> “capable of anything”, even, he said potentially “pressing the red
> button” to launch a nuclear war. ...

> Asked if there was evidence that Putin was suffering from an
> illness, or was simply playing on the “crazy man strategy”,
> Khodorkovsky responded:

> “He has found himself in an information bubble which forms a very
> distorted picture of the world in his eyes.... what does that mean
> for the rest of us? It means he’s very dangerous. Does it mean
> that he’s capable of pressing the red button? The nuclear button?
> I hope that he hasn’t gone that far yet in his understanding of
> the world, but one could never be confident about this.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 9c41a727e8

Fake news bullshit, John. The MSM clearly wants a nuclear war to happen.

And yet Putin has announced putting strategic forces on alert.

[Jack Edwards]

I found this video interesting, Garry Kasparov (former chess grandmaster) talking about Putin, Ukraine and strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYhsloR ... andCompany

He makes a lot of points that have been mentioned in this forum:
-Putin doesn't care what the people think, he's a dictator.
-If we support Ukraine now, it will just embolden China to take Taiwan.
-Being non partisan he says plenty of negative things about Obama and Trump that helped create this mess.

Regards
Jack