Just playing around with some counts and thoughts for SPX, DXY, WTIC and GOLD between now and March 2023. We know after the full wave 1 of III finishes that we should have another bear market rally before the final plunge of wave 3 of III. I suspect the wave 2 of III will be from November to December to close the year as DXY weakness pushes up the market, mid-term election hopes, the slowing down of interest rate hikes by the Fed could feed some hope that they may be forced to pivot sooner, and as the economy gets worse, bad news will be good news again, again providing the misguided belief of a pivot sooner.
After that, the rug will be pulled, coinciding with a last C wave drop for both Gold and Oil which will soon bottom before rebounding strongly. Up until then, both Gold and Oil declined along with the market due to recession fears and demand destruction, but all that will change in March when China initiates their operation against Taiwan. This may even precipitate the drop in January as logistically, they would need to start troop and equipment movement which would be hard to hide. Around this time, Gold, Silver and Oil will start their separation from the general markets and the next commodities bull market will be kicked off.
I don't believe China will do anything in October - November of this year as there are more pros than cons to waiting. The US and NATO continue to waste their resources in Ukraine, and the energy crisis in Europe has only started and hasn't filtered fully into their economy yet. Japan is having their own currency issue as well. The more their citizens suffer, the more divisiveness between their leaders and their population, resulting in less national unity and morale. Thus, by the time China makes it's move, the public outage that would normally occur would be more muted as people no longer care about other countries when they're suffering themselves.
This is me trying to reconcile the wave counts and the macro events that could align with them.
- If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans
*** arrows are for general direction and do not reflect price ranges or time duration
