vincecate wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:36 am
They destroyed the economy with a decade of zero interest rates, that is done and can not be changed.
The Austrian Economists call this "malinvestment". If you can borrow money for near zero-percent then
all sorts of stupid business ideas look reasonable. We have had far more foolish than "pets.com" this time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malinvestment
Going forward the choice is between destruction with hyperinflation and destruction without-hyperinflation.
My bet is they think they want to control inflation long enough to crash the bond, stock, real estate markets,
then they decide to print and we get hyperinflation.
I sent this quote from you to a family member. I've been saying for over a decade that Bernanke's actions and those that followed destroyed the world economy and will send the world into a new dark age, but it didn't really resonate. Sometimes people need to hear it from someone else in different words for it to really come across. The way you put it here resonated much better. I feel this is the cliff notes version that the average person needs to know - "they destroyed the economy..., that is done and can not be changed". I think things have also reached a point where most people can see this more clearly. That may mean the crash we have been talking about is close. There's been some mention this week of VIX call buying at strikes of 100 and over for the first half of next year. But the fact that they are buying now says to me any time in the next few months is the bet.
If you agree with this it is confusing to me why you have been so anti-BTC for the time we've been on the board. It is already a major help and safety for most other citizens in inflation economies (all way worse than the US), and as confidence in everything continues to plummet, you have it as the best use case by far.
If Vince and I agree, and we've explained what's going on, why would others look into what we say more, if not trust us? It's a rather strange phenomenon similar to what I've posted on other threads in the forum.
Cool Breeze wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:54 am
If you agree with this it is confusing to me why you have been so anti-BTC for the time we've been on the board. It is already a major help and safety for most other citizens in inflation economies (all way worse than the US), and as confidence in everything continues to plummet, you have it as the best use case by far.
If Vince and I agree, and we've explained what's going on, why would others look into what we say more, if not trust us? It's a rather strange phenomenon similar to what I've posted on other threads in the forum.
There are many people, like Peter Schiff, who understand the problem of printing too much money who don't see Bitcoin as the solution. There are many many times in history where printing too much money caused really bad problems. I think if anyone really studies money printing enough they can understand that it can cause problems.
But Bitcoin is not the only potential alternative to money printing. In fact, I think that central banks like in China and Russia are moving to use more gold already. If dollar become worthless, then the only assets central banks will have will be gold. So central banks could move to a gold standard sort of automatically. Then the only way they can support their currencies will be by selling gold.
Even though I think countries like Iran and Russia will be selling oil in Bitcoin in the next year, I suspect it is longer before the central banks are really trying to stockpile it as reserves like they are with gold.
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 8:29 pm
I might short into any rally in the next 2 days. 4200 and 3500 seem to me to be the important numbers the past 2 months. I'm not too interested in any levels besides those and their fibs. I'd be really surprised if the market could get over 4200 the rest of this year but wouldn't be surprised to see something over 4000. 3767 is the 38.2% retrace of the trip from 4200 to 3500. After hitting 3500, the market tried to overcome 3767, came close, and failed. I sold some up there yesterday (as posted) and was lucky enough to get out with a profit. The odds the second time up usually aren't as good but the clock is ticking on expiration week.
I'm shorting this morning. Have done some and won't be doing hardly any more today if the market goes higher. I would rather not see the market come any closer to 3767 than it already has this morning. If it does, I will stay with the position I have but get prepared for a move over 3767.
This S&P has dropped about 35 points and I covered shorts with the S&P up about 2. The market may make another attempt on this morning's high before expiration week is over.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
vincecate wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:36 am
They destroyed the economy with a decade of zero interest rates, that is done and can not be changed.
The Austrian Economists call this "malinvestment". If you can borrow money for near zero-percent then
all sorts of stupid business ideas look reasonable. We have had far more foolish than "pets.com" this time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malinvestment
Going forward the choice is between destruction with hyperinflation and destruction without-hyperinflation.
My bet is they think they want to control inflation long enough to crash the bond, stock, real estate markets,
then they decide to print and we get hyperinflation.
I sent this quote from you to a family member. I've been saying for over a decade that Bernanke's actions and those that followed destroyed the world economy and will send the world into a new dark age, but it didn't really resonate. Sometimes people need to hear it from someone else in different words for it to really come across. The way you put it here resonated much better. I feel this is the cliff notes version that the average person needs to know - "they destroyed the economy..., that is done and can not be changed". I think things have also reached a point where most people can see this more clearly. That may mean the crash we have been talking about is close. There's been some mention this week of VIX call buying at strikes of 100 and over for the first half of next year. But the fact that they are buying now says to me any time in the next few months is the bet.
If you agree with this it is confusing to me why you have been so anti-BTC for the time we've been on the board. It is already a major help and safety for most other citizens in inflation economies (all way worse than the US), and as confidence in everything continues to plummet, you have it as the best use case by far.
If Vince and I agree, and we've explained what's going on, why would others look into what we say more, if not trust us? It's a rather strange phenomenon similar to what I've posted on other threads in the forum.
There are many reasons, as previously discussed, and completely separate from my other assertion that Bitcoin was in a bubble, which was what most of last year's back and forth was about. One of them is embedded within my post. If we're going into a dark age or a destroyed economy, there will be no surpluses at most times in most places and in that case barter will be preferred or necessary. We're certainly not at that point yet or even close. The shelves are still full and as mentioned in a recent post throughputs are not down much. But the companies with no profits are still standing too.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
My puts on FXY (yen) and TLT (treasuries long term) are doing well. Yesterday I signed a contract and put a deposit on this beach land that is perfect for building Seasteads. I have 4 months to pay the full amount. Today's action makes it look like it is not going to be any problem.
It is the house and lot (1.2 acres) just to the left of the government area by the main cargo port in Anguilla.
Snap's slowing ad growth sends inflation fears through tech sector
By Sheila Dang
Reuters) -Snap Inc on Thursday forecast no revenue growth in the typically busy holiday quarter, sending a warning signal that rising inflation and the war in Ukraine could hurt other tech companies dependent on advertising revenue.
Shares of Snap dropped 26% in after-hours trading.
The owner of photo messaging app Snapchat is the first of the major tech firms to report quarterly earnings, and the results cast a shadow for other platforms that rely on advertising revenue such as Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc, Alphabet’s Google and Pinterest, which report their results next week.
Despite Twitter company executives repeatedly telling employees that there are no immediate layoff plans during town hall meetings over the past few months, The Washington Post reports that Musk is planning to make massive job cuts in the coming months.
According to interviews and documents obtained by WaPo - so take that with the pinch of salt it deserves - Musk told prospective investors in his deal to buy the company that he planned to get rid of nearly 75 percent of Twitter’s 7,500 workers, whittling the company down to a skeleton staff of just over 2,000.
125 years after foundation: German construction company Wolff Hoch- und Ingenieurbau insolvent.
130 years after foundation: German confectionery manufacturer Bodeta insolvent.
156 years after foundation: German automotive supplier Borgers insolvent.
170 years after foundation: German soap maker Kappus insolvent.
“They’re not insolvent then, they just stop producing,” the German minister of economics and member of the Green Party, Robert Habeck
aeden wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:08 pm
125 years after foundation: German construction company Wolff Hoch- und Ingenieurbau insolvent.
130 years after foundation: German confectionery manufacturer Bodeta insolvent.
156 years after foundation: German automotive supplier Borgers insolvent.
170 years after foundation: German soap maker Kappus insolvent.
“They’re not insolvent then, they just stop producing,” the German minister of economics and member of the Green Party, Robert Habeck
These companies survived WWI, Weimar hyperinflation, WWII, and now within a few weeks are shutting down. The 45% PPI in Germany is really hard.
I sent this quote from you to a family member. I've been saying for over a decade that Bernanke's actions and those that followed destroyed the world economy and will send the world into a new dark age, but it didn't really resonate. Sometimes people need to hear it from someone else in different words for it to really come across. The way you put it here resonated much better. I feel this is the cliff notes version that the average person needs to know - "they destroyed the economy..., that is done and can not be changed". I think things have also reached a point where most people can see this more clearly. That may mean the crash we have been talking about is close. There's been some mention this week of VIX call buying at strikes of 100 and over for the first half of next year. But the fact that they are buying now says to me any time in the next few months is the bet.
If you agree with this it is confusing to me why you have been so anti-BTC for the time we've been on the board. It is already a major help and safety for most other citizens in inflation economies (all way worse than the US), and as confidence in everything continues to plummet, you have it as the best use case by far.
If Vince and I agree, and we've explained what's going on, why would others look into what we say more, if not trust us? It's a rather strange phenomenon similar to what I've posted on other threads in the forum.
There are many reasons, as previously discussed, and completely separate from my other assertion that Bitcoin was in a bubble, which was what most of last year's back and forth was about. One of them is embedded within my post. If we're going into a dark age or a destroyed economy, there will be no surpluses at most times in most places and in that case barter will be preferred or necessary. We're certainly not at that point yet or even close. The shelves are still full and as mentioned in a recent post throughputs are not down much. But the companies with no profits are still standing too.
There's a big difference between a dark age and a destroyed economy. In any non apocalyptic scenario where gold is useful, BTC is more useful. That's just the fact. If it's all bartering, with not internet or electric grid, goods and food are more useful than gold. The point here is the check on our sensationalism. It pretty much doesn't matter if the world irrevocably changes, which is the reason to invest in something like BTC right now, since its upside is WAY HIGHER than every asset imaginable. In just 6 years (common) people will be kicking themselves for missing out on one of the last millionaire makers that was possible.