Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Cool Breeze wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:22 pm It's funny to think of Turkey as a threat to Russia. Turkey is always on the losing side. Always. And they are a people with a sordid history and a worse religion connecting them to others who have caused much problems for being nobodies for centuries.

When Russia is strong, yes. But if Russia is weak?

That'll be a while.

Watching the news. I think I'm gonna be sick...

** 06-Jan-2021 World View: Hyperbole

DaKardii wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:53 pm > Watching the news. I think I'm gonna be sick...

My personal view is that all the apocalyptic commentary on all the
cable channels describing this as a major historic crisis is
hyperbole. This too shall pass, and probably fairly quickly.

** 06-Jan-2021 World View: Capitol bombing -- July 2, 1915

Bomb Rocks Capitol

July 2, 1915



Photo of Muenter's Arrest

A solitary figure slipped quietly into the Capitol on the Friday
afternoon leading to a Fourth of July weekend. He cradled a small
package containing three sticks of dynamite. The former professor of
German at Harvard University, Erich Muenter, came to Washington to
deliver an explosive message. Although the Senate had been out of
session since the previous March and was not due to reconvene until
December, Muenter headed for the Senate Chamber. Finding the chamber
doors locked, he decided that the adjacent Senate Reception Room would
serve his purposes. He worked quickly, placing his deadly package
under the Senate's telephone switchboard, whose operator had left for
the holiday weekend. After setting the timing mechanism for a few
minutes before midnight to minimize casualties, he walked to Union
Station and purchased a ticket for the midnight train to New York
City.

At 20 minutes before midnight, as he watched from the station, a
thunderous explosion rocked the Capitol. The blast nearly knocked
Capitol police officer Frank Jones from his chair at the Senate wing's
east front entrance. Ten minutes earlier, the lucky Jones had closed a
window next to the switchboard. A 30-year police veteran, the officer
harbored a common fear that one day the Capitol dome would fall into
the rotunda. For a few frantic moments, he believed that day had
come. Jones then entered the Reception Room and observed its
devastation—a shattered mirror, broken window glass, smashed
chandeliers, and pulverized plaster from the frescoed ceiling.

In a letter to the Washington Evening Star, published after the blast,
Muenter attempted to explain his outrageous act. Writing under an
assumed name, he hoped that the detonation would "make enough noise to
be heard above the voices that clamor for war. This explosion is an
exclamation point in my appeal for peace." The former German professor
was particularly angry with American financiers who were aiding Great
Britain against Germany in World War I, despite this country's
official neutrality in that conflict.

Arriving in New York City early the next morning, Muenter headed for
the Long Island estate of J. P. Morgan, Jr. Morgan's company served as
Great Britain's principal U.S. purchasing agent for munitions and
other war supplies. When Morgan came to the door, Muenter pulled a
pistol, shot him, and fled. The financier's wounds proved superficial
and the gunman was soon captured. In jail, several days later, Muenter
took his own life.

Reference Items:

U.S. Congress. Senate. History of the United States Capitol: A
Chronicle of Design, Construction, and Politics, by William
C. Allen. 106th Congress, 2d sess., 2001. S. Doc. 106-29.

https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/hi ... apitol.htm

** 06-Jan-2021 World View: Certification dates

I'm no constitutional scholar, but I do have a copy of the
constitution in a file on my computer. I skimmed through it, and it
only says that the various dates are set by Congress.

So unless I'm missing something, if the certification process is
delayed a day or two, the world won't come to an end.

The other thing is that the people whining that this is "un-American"
are often the same people who were cheering when antifa-blm were
pulling down statues.

I'm old enough to have seen many, many protests in Washington. The
ones supported by Democrats are always described by the media as Great
for Democracy, and the ones supported by Republicans are always
described by the media as Dangerous for Democracy.

DaKardii wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:34 pm
Japan and Russia are the only things standing in the way of a Chinese invasion of the US. Should Japan fall, then China would have a springboard to invade Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. And should Russia fall, China would have a springboard to invade the US proper, first through Alaska and then Canada.

That being said, there will be massive opposition to war with China on any other grounds, because countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines are not nearly as important to our national interests as Japan and Russia are, because those countries, unlike Japan and Russia, do not share any kind of border with us.

The thing standing in the way of a Chinese invasion of the US is some 8,000 miles of the Pacific Ocean. Long range amphibious invasions are very difficult and require a lot of hardware, much of it specialized. China would be hard pressed to invade Taiwan without taking horrible losses. Even Guam would be extremely hard for China. The continental United States is a shear impossibility. Even is China had conquered North Eastern Russia, you'll notice there is no land connection and few ports of consequence outside of Vladivostok. Any seaborne invasion would come out of normal Chinese ports which are equipped, such as it is, for such activities.

Russia would resort to nuclear weapons before allowing a big chuck of its territory to be conquered in war. Japan has a very good military and would be next to impossible to invade/conquer short of nuclear weapons. It also has the explicit protection of the USN and USAF.

As to the others, South Korea is no slouch with a very good military, Taiwan could at least make a good show of it while there is no real reason for China to attack the Philippines. Honestly, there is little there except some 90 million people who don't really like the Chinese and have a culture of violence. As to whether the US would protect any of them, two words: Samsung and TSMC. Both are vital in electronics fabrication these days. For the Philippines, besides explicit defense agreements there are around 4 million citizens either from the Philippines or descent from it. That's a good amount to make a big noise.

Honestly, I think you're making a lot of faulty assumptions about what China could/would do. Your talk of borders is frankly kind of silly. The US does not share a border with Japan in any way and only tangentially with Russia. You also need to look at actual capabilities of China. It's navy is improving but is deficient in certain kinds of experience and equipment. It's army may be competent, but without a way to get to the fight it's useless and that's a navy job. It's air force has some good kit, but it lacks the range to attack many of its neighbors. That leaves missiles. If China starts shooting missiles left and right that's inviting retaliation and China has lots a **really** tasty targets.

DaKardii wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:53 pm Watching the news. I think I'm gonna be sick...

Yeah. Biden's speaking now.

Xeraphim1 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:57 pm

DaKardii wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:34 pm
Japan and Russia are the only things standing in the way of a Chinese invasion of the US. Should Japan fall, then China would have a springboard to invade Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. And should Russia fall, China would have a springboard to invade the US proper, first through Alaska and then Canada.

That being said, there will be massive opposition to war with China on any other grounds, because countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines are not nearly as important to our national interests as Japan and Russia are, because those countries, unlike Japan and Russia, do not share any kind of border with us.

The thing standing in the way of a Chinese invasion of the US is some 8,000 miles of the Pacific Ocean. Long range amphibious invasions are very difficult and require a lot of hardware, much of it specialized. China would be hard pressed to invade Taiwan without taking horrible losses. Even Guam would be extremely hard for China. The continental United States is a shear impossibility. Even is China had conquered North Eastern Russia, you'll notice there is no land connection and few ports of consequence outside of Vladivostok. Any seaborne invasion would come out of normal Chinese ports which are equipped, such as it is, for such activities.

Russia would resort to nuclear weapons before allowing a big chuck of its territory to be conquered in war. Japan has a very good military and would be next to impossible to invade/conquer short of nuclear weapons. It also has the explicit protection of the USN and USAF.

As to the others, South Korea is no slouch with a very good military, Taiwan could at least make a good show of it while there is no real reason for China to attack the Philippines. Honestly, there is little there except some 90 million people who don't really like the Chinese and have a culture of violence. As to whether the US would protect any of them, two words: Samsung and TSMC. Both are vital in electronics fabrication these days. For the Philippines, besides explicit defense agreements there are around 4 million citizens either from the Philippines or descent from it. That's a good amount to make a big noise.

Honestly, I think you're making a lot of faulty assumptions about what China could/would do. Your talk of borders is frankly kind of silly. The US does not share a border with Japan in any way and only tangentially with Russia. You also need to look at actual capabilities of China. It's navy is improving but is deficient in certain kinds of experience and equipment. It's army may be competent, but without a way to get to the fight it's useless and that's a navy job. It's air force has some good kit, but it lacks the range to attack many of its neighbors. That leaves missiles. If China starts shooting missiles left and right that's inviting retaliation and China has lots a **really** tasty targets.

There are two much shorter routes that China can take. It can either invade Alaska (2,200 miles away) using the Russian Far East as a springboard, or the Northern Mariana Islands/Guam (1,600 miles away) using Japan as a springboard. No need to go the long way across the Pacific.

John wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:58 pm ** 06-Jan-2021 World View: Hyperbole

DaKardii wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:53 pm > Watching the news. I think I'm gonna be sick...

My personal view is that all the apocalyptic commentary on all the
cable channels describing this as a major historic crisis is
hyperbole. This too shall pass, and probably fairly quickly.

Agreed that it will pass quickly. This seems to be a time where both sides use hyperbole. I don't see anyone holding back. If I am not sick it is because Trump has been working towards this for months. It is sort of what I expect.